Two Camps

Sam Altman believes AGI could arrive within 5-10 years. Yann LeCun argues autoregressive LLMs are not the path to AGI.

Current Bottlenecks

  • Reasoning: LLMs still struggle with complex reasoning
  • World Models: Lack of physical world understanding
  • Continuous Learning: Can’t update knowledge post-deployment
  • Hallucination: Factual reliability remains a major issue — see LLM Hallucination Research

My Assessment

AGI likely needs 10-20 more years. But “useful enough AI” has already arrived, transforming knowledge work today.